Oscar Nomination Predictions 2009

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning/afternoon (depending on where you are) and as such, here are my nomination predictions. Just to be a smart-arse, I predict every category, because generally I’m better at the smaller, more obscure categories. People assume that they are just guesswork, but they’re not. If you know your Oscar history, like I do, then you can make educated assumptions on them. With the bigger categories, like Picture or Actor, it’s generally just keeping your eyes and ears open throughout the season and seeing who has been nominated for other awards. But, like William Goldman once said, nobody knows anything.

BEST PICTURE

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Frost/Nixon

 - Milk

 - Slumdog Millionaire

If anyone would have told me this time last year that I’d be bored during an Oscar season where films by Danny Boyle, David Fincher and Christopher Nolan are front-runners, I wouldn’t have believed them, but the only surprising thing about the Oscar race this year is how bored I have been. These five have been sewn up since pretty much the beginning, with both the Producers Guild and – most crucially – the Director’s Guild nominating all five. Some people will try and convince you that Golden Globe and BAFTA shut-outs for Milk and Dark Knight mean that they are weak in the race, and a film like The Reader may sneak in, but they’re wrong. It’s these five all the way.

BEST DIRECTOR

 - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

 - David Fincher, The Curious Case

 - Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

 - Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

 - Gus Van Sant, Milk

The same logic applies to the Director race. Generally, Best Picture and Best Director never match up 5-for-5, and there is always a lone-director nominee in the mix (last year being Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell & The Butterfly over Atonement’s Joe Wright) and maybe this year Darren Aronofsky could sneak in for The Wrestler, but that seems unlikely. No other directors have really got any traction this year, so for only the second time since 1981 (the last time was in 2005), there will be a Picture-Director match.

BEST ACTOR

 - Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

 - Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

 - Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

 - Sean Penn, Milk

 - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Penn, Rourke and Langella are sewn-up, they’ve got these nominations in the bag, and Richard Jenkins has been a well-respected character actor for years and has finally broken through so I’d say he’s sitting pretty as well. That leaves the fifth spot open, and there are three actors gunning for it. Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road, Brad Pitt for The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button and Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino. Leo hasn’t really been getting any support from any of the other awards bodies, as people don’t really love his film, and those who do are all focusing on Kate Winslet. Brad Pitt would seem like a good bet, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the final spot either, but while people are marvelling at Benjamin Button’s technical achievements, no one is really seeing it as an actor’s film. Then we have Clint, who hasn’t been getting as much awards attention as the other two, but that has never stopped the Academy before when it comes to him. They love Eastwood, and Gran Torino has been a hit, so I see him getting in. And who knows, if he does, he may even win it if they decide Penn doesn’t need another one and Rourke is too much of a renegade.

BEST ACTRESS

 - Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

 - Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

 - Melissa Leo, Frozen River

 - Meryl Streep, Doubt

 - Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

There have only been seven actresses in the race this year, with these five, Angelina Jolie for Changeling and Kristen Scott-Thomas in I’ve Loved You So Long. The only ones I’ve predicted who may be weak are Sally Hawkins (no Screen Actor’s Guild nomination) and Melissa Leo (not enough people know who she is) but both have been winning critical awards by the barrel, and the Academy love it when Mike Leigh finds a new female muse, so Hawkins is in, and Best Actress is the kindest category to women who were in critical darlings released early in the year (as Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard found out last year) so that's good for both her and Leo. Some might be shocked if Angelina Jolie gets snubbed, but don’t forget that she was in exactly the same situation last year when she didn’t get nominated for A Mighty Heart. She has Golden Globe and SAG nominations, but people just didn’t care for the film, and her icy, aloof demeanour seems to put people off. Of course, the might want to make it up to her for last year, but I’ll kick myself if Leo gets nominated and it doesn’t look like I saw it coming.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 - Josh Brolin, Milk

 - Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

 - Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

 - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

 - Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

All five of these guys are safe. Supporting Actor has been a weak category this year, as it has basically just been Heath Ledger and friends for the whole season. James Franco could get in for Milk instead of Dev Patel, but I think Slumdog love will see him in quite safely. If he isn’t nominated, it will be the first time since 1995 (Braveheart) that there is a Best Picture winner with no acting nominations (I know, I know, Lord Of The Rings, but that was a different situation altogether.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 - Amy Adams, Doubt

 - Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

 - Viola Davis, Doubt

 - Kate Winslet, The Reader

 - Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married) or Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button) get nominated over Amy Adams, but she’s been getting constant nominations all season, and she has the name recognition and previous nomination that those other two don’t. However, it would be odd for Doubt to get four acting nominations and no Best Picture nomination, so it wouldn’t surprise me if she got snubbed. Henson seemed like a safe bet earlier in the year, but like I said, Benjamin Button just isn’t considered an actor’s movie.

And here are the rest of my predictions...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 - Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh

 - Milk, Dustin Lance Black

 - Rachel Getting Married, Jenny Lumet

 - Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen 

 - The Wrestler, Robert D. Seigel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth

 - Doubt, John Patrick Shanley

 - Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan

 - The Reader, David Hare

 - Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

BEST ANIMATED FILM

 - Kung-Fu Panda

 - WALL-E

 - Waltz With Bashir

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

 - The Baader Meinhoff Complex (Germany)

 - Everlasting Moments (Sweden)

 - The Necessities Of Life (Canada)

 - Revance (Austria)

 - Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

 - The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)

 - Blessed Is The Match: The Life And Death Of Hannah Senesh

 - Man On A Wire

 - They Killed Sister Dorothy

 - Trouble In The Water

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Slumdog Millionaire

 - The Reader

 - Revolutionary Road

BEST ART DIRECTION

 - Australia

 - Changeling

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - Frost/Nixon

 - Milk

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

 - Australia

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - Changeling

 - The Duchess

 - The Reader

BEST FILM EDITING

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Frost/Nixon

 - Milk

 - Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Revolutionary Road

 - Slumdog Millionaire

 - WALL-E

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

 - “Down to Earth” from WALL-E

 - “I Thought I Lost You” from Bolt

 - “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire

 - “O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire

 - “The Wrestler” from The Wrestler

BEST SOUND MIXING

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Iron Man

 - Slumdog Millionaire

 - WALL-E

BEST SOUND EDITING

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Indiana Jones & The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

 - Iron Man

 - WALL-E

BEST MAKEUP

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Reader

 - The Wrestler

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

 - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

 - The Dark Knight

 - Iron Man

The nominations are announced tomorrow afternoon, so I'll post my thoughts on the huge surprises/inevitable predictabilities (delete as applicable) tomorrow evening.

Review: Slumdog Millionaire

The first of my film reviews. In honour of tomorrow's Oscar nominations, in which this film is presumably going to do extremely well, here is my review of...

BOYLE GOES SLUMMING

dir: Danny Boyle

starring: Dev Patel, Frieda Pinto, Irfan Khan

Danny Boyle is, his CV would suggest, a director with the filmmaking equivalent of ADHD. From the darkly comic thriller Shallow Grave to the rom-com on the run A Life Less Ordinary and the post-apocalyptic horror 28 Days Layer, he is constantly jumping with gleeful energy from one genre to the next, never allowing himself to make the same film twice. So it shouldn’t have really come as a surprise that he chose to make his newest project about “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire”. Not only that, but the Indian version.

Jamal Malik (played in his adolescent incarnation by Skins’ Dev Patel) is accused of cheating when he is one question away from winning the jackpot on the show, and must explain to the police how he came to know the seemingly random answers – which, of course, lie in his past as an orphaned street urchin living in the slums of Mumbai. The story jumps back-and-forth between the investigation, the quiz show, and a series of vignettes set in Jamal’s childhood. From there, there’s some stuff about destiny and True Love conquering all, but that is besides the point. Danny Boyle has never allowed his films to be dominated by story, which may possibly explain his inconsistent filmography, which is as shaky as the camera he uses to excitably chase his actors around with. For each hit he makes such as Trainspotting, he has a misjudged flop like The Beach up his sleeve, but the throughline of his career has been the energy, and Slumdog is no different.

As usual, Boyle directs with a hyper-kinetic, foot-stomping vitality and at first you’ll be glad to come along for the ride. With so much happening on screen, you won’t notice the limited emotional range of his actors, hidden behind the frenzied editing and vividly saturated colours of the cinematography. However, after a while, “frenzied” becomes “exhausting”, “vividy saturated” becomes “garish” and the weaknesses of Simon Beaufoy’s (The Full Monty) uneven screenplay become glaringly obvious. For with the gimmicky narrative hook determining the focus of the film, rather than the characters, this is one film where the story is the star, not Boyle’s directing, and this is where it all starts to fall apart.

The constant flashbacks for each question (which, by a wild coincidence, when taken in order correspond chronologically with traumas in Jamal’s young life) leads to the movie unfolding in a stop-and-start fashion that kills any suspense and robs the film of the energy that Boyle heroically tries to maintain for its entirety and ultimately become distracting. As these episodic vignettes become more and more repetitive (yes, we understand, growing up as an orphan in the slums was horrific, although the excitement and vitality that Danny Boyle has clearly found in Mumbai seems to be at odds with this message) they become a distraction from the quiz show element of the film, which becomes the most interesting of the many plots. Will Jamal win? What will happen if he does? And has it been rigged by the suspicious-looking host (you can’t imagine Chris Tarrant acting so horribly to one of the English contestants)?  Not that any of these questions matter, of course, as we are told from the beginning of the film that Jamal’s destiny “is written”. Nothing the audience feels and no plot obstacle dreamed up could possibly alter it, making any kind of interest we have in rooting for our protagonist to overcome the odds ultimately redundant.

Never losing his eye for the cinematic, Boyle ends with a clever, well-judged homage to the Bollywood movies that surely inspired him throughout the making of the film, but by the time the finale comes around, you’ll be so worn out and fatigued it’s just more white noise you feel you need sit through lest you miss the one vital moment that reveals the answer to the most important question at the heart of Slumdog Millionaire – why everyone seems to have fallen in love with this film.

VERDICT: ** out of *****